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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."